Egg market is normalizing

The gap to the previous year is shrinking

The supply situation on the egg market is normalizing. With the end of the seasonal demand peak at the end of the year and the gradual compensation of previous production losses, bottlenecks are no longer to be expected in the short term. Inevitably, egg prices will leave their previous record level and move back into "more normal" regions. It is currently not possible to predict how long the prices will be able to maintain a lead over the previous year.

In Germany, 4,92 million laying chicks hatched in September this year, around a fifth more than in the same month last year. Hatching egg deposits reached 12,46 million pieces, an increase of nearly 24 percent. However, it can still be assumed that some of the chicks hatched in this country are destined for later egg production in the Netherlands. Nevertheless, the gap in German production potential compared to the previous year is shrinking and in February 2004 is likely to be just over three percent.

The Netherlands are increasing the number of laying hens

The figures that are now available on the laying chicks in the Netherlands suggest that stocks there will be rebuilt relatively quickly. Nevertheless, the projections – including imports of young hens – for the beginning of 2004 still show a shortfall in potential hen stocks compared to 2003 by around 23 percent. Next March, the previous year's level will almost be reached again, because losses in the Netherlands due to the plague began in March 2003.

Also EU-wide recovery

The laying hen potential for the European Union as a whole is also recovering. In addition to Germany and the Netherlands, there is also a clear increase in the number of chicks in Spain: in 2002, the number of chicks hatched there increased by almost ten percent, and in 2003 an increase of around five percent is expected.

The first current information is available from Belgium, which was also “affected by the plague”. From January to September of this year, 23,62 million laying chicks were housed, which is a good 16 percent more than in 2002. And in October, too, the previous year's line was probably exceeded, at least that's what the increased number of hatching eggs indicates.

The production potential in the EU as a whole will initially remain below the comparable level of the previous year. At the beginning of 2004, however, the gap to the previous year's line will only be around 2,5 percent.

Source: Bonn [ZmP]