Private demand for food: quantities up, prices down

CMA and ZMP show positive development for 2003

The market researchers from ZMP and CMA recorded a predominantly positive development in the purchasing volume of private German households in 2003. Not only meat, sausage and meat products are on course for growth, milk, sugar, fruit, vegetables and cooking oil have also increased. These and other results are provided by the new brochure "Demand from private households for food in 2003 - an overview of trends and structures", which the CMA and ZMP are publishing for the International Green Week in Berlin. The calculations are based on data from the GfK household panels. The values ​​for November and December are not yet available. They are therefore estimated, taking seasonal influences into account, and integrated into the extrapolation of the annual result.

Growth course in shopping behavior

After the BSE shock and the uncertainty about the euro, the purchasing volume for meat at + 3% and sausage and meat products at + 2% is back on a growth path. Most dairy products also grew. The hot summer paid off with a double-digit increase, especially for milk beverages, but yoghurt is also growing by five percent. Fruit and vegetables - whether fresh or canned - are also 2% up on the previous year. Edible oil recorded 3% volume growth, and sugar even grew by 4%.

discounters and private labels

The higher demand for sugar and cooking oil indicates that people are cooking, baking and preserving more at home again. Despite this, sales in the grocery stores are stagnating. On the one hand, consumers are orienting themselves in the direction of discounters, on the other hand, they are increasingly asking for private labels - in other words, they are looking for the cheaper calorie. As a consequence, this means: Although the food retail trade gains in "Share of Stomach" compared to the catering trade, this is not reflected in positive sales figures. This is confirmed by looking at the development of prices, which were below the previous year in most product areas. Consumers were able to buy meat and sausage in particular, but also most dairy products at lower prices. But there are also products for which he had to dig deeper into his pocket. Due to the weather, the domestic potato harvest was lower in the previous year. The prices, which have been higher since the autumn, reflect the currently declining supply. In the long term, the demand for fresh potatoes will decrease because processed potato products, pasta and rice are more popular with convenience-oriented consumers. Due to the supply, the egg consumption is also in the red. Prices for standard goods reached a historic high. The fact that prices were able to climb so high proves that there would have been more on the demand side if there had been enough goods on the market. The cause of the supply gaps was above all the avian influenza in Holland and Belgium.

competition from discounters

It is true that the trend towards discounters has lost momentum compared to the euro year 2002. Nevertheless, according to GfK, Aldi and Co. recorded high growth rates of 2003% in 5,5 as well. Lidl in particular continues to grow unabated and is catching up with the industry leader Aldi. In addition to the higher area expansion, the range of branded goods also speaks for Lidl, which is now increasingly poaching Aldi's customers. In addition, he consistently pursues the expansion of his fresh product range. After introducing fresh poultry in 2002, he is currently heavily involved in the red meat segment and offers nationwide minute steaks, mixed minced meat, chops and coarse bratwurst. The significantly expanded ranges of white and red meat as well as fruit and vegetables are attracting more and more customers to Lidl stores.

Price war

With a 13% market share, discounters are only at the beginning of a development process for meat. With other products, the volume share of the discount sector has long passed the 50% mark. These include dairy products such as cheese, yoghurt, quark and milk as well as preserves, sugar and cooking oil. With the latter, the discounters can even handle 60% of the purchase volume this year. However, their quantitative significance is disproportionately low for meat products/sausages at 40%, poultry 39%, potatoes 38%, bread 32% and above all meat at 13%. In these categories, specialist shops and alternative forms of marketing (such as buying directly from the producer or weekly markets) play a role that should not be underestimated. Bakers are still market leaders in bread. And about every fifth kilo of meat and sausage goes over the butcher's counter. Nevertheless, the rough wind of the price war is blowing in the face of the handicraft businesses. 

Order

The brochure is now available on the ZMP website (www.zmp.de/mafo) can be accessed free of charge. For each product area, it contains information on purchase quantities, expenses, prices, places of purchase and regional preferences. Anyone who would like to put it in their pocket as a reference document can order it as a DIN A 16 booklet from January 2004, 6 from the ZMP Central Market and Price Report Office GmbH, Rochusstraße 2, 53123 Bonn, Tel. 0228/9777-173, Fax. 0228/9777-179, email This e-mail address is being protected from spambots To display JavaScript must be turned on!. In addition, the ZMP offers further detailed analyzes at a price of 41 euros per product group.

Source: Bonn [cma]